883 lines
39 KiB
HTML
883 lines
39 KiB
HTML
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<title>Bob Young Speaks at LXNY LG #47</title>
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<H4>
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"Linux Gazette...<I>making Linux just a little more fun!</I>"
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<H1><font color="maroon">Bob Young Speaks at LXNY</font></H1>
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<H4>By <a href="mailto:adler@ssadler.phy.bnl.gov">Stephen Adler</a></H4>
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<P> <HR> <P>
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<center>
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<table>
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<td>
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny27.jpg>
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<td>
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<font size=+1>
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<br>
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<center>
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<font size=+1>
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<em>Look Ma! That Bengal Tiger is Charging Right at Us with its
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Claws Ready to Strike!</em><br>
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</font>
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</center>
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</font>
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</table>
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</center>
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<HR>
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<P>
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<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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New York City under what remains of hurricane Dennis
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<P><EM>[Click on the thumbnail images for full-sized pictures.]</EM>
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</font>
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</caption>
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<tr><td WIDTH=149>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny24.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny24Small.jpg WIDTH=149 HEIGHT=200>
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</a>
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</table>
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The multicast packets were going out the tunnel but not in. Hmmm....
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I'll kill mrouted, and change the TTL threshold on the tunnel to 1 in
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/etc/mrouted.conf. Restart mrouted, kill it with a USR1, and check the
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routing tables it just dumped to /var/tmp. Hmmm.... Again, packets go
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out, but not in. Ok, lets ftp the very latest version of mrouted
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(beta version number increments by one), recompile, kill the running
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version of mrouted and startup the new one. Ah, now I have mrinfo with
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this package to help debug the multicast tunnel I've setup. New version
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of mrouted but same problem; packets go out, but they don't come
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in. I've managed to fully configure a one-way multicast tunnel.
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<p>
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<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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A nice example of the breadth of architectural styles found in the NYC
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sky scape.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny20.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny20Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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It was September 7th, 1999, and I was counting down the days to a
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crazy event which will occur in less than one month. <a
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href="http://openscience.bnl.gov">Open Source/Open Science
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1999</a>. My life has been turned totally upside down trying to get
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this conference together, and setting up this multicast tunnel into
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the Internet is a vital step. The conference will be broadcast onto
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the Internet come hell or high water! But, another very important
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event was happening that day. Bob Young was taking time away from his
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schedule to go back to an old haunt of his, LXNY, and spend about 4
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hours answering questions and later going to dinner with his old user
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group. So I spent the day fighting the multicast tunnel dragon, a
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fiery beast which spewed out multicast packets with deadly force. I
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defended and attacked with my source code armor and sword, deflecting
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those deadly packet attacks with emacs, GNU make, gcc and lots of
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greps and mores. The meeting started at 6:30pm and this time I was
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damned if I wasn't going to catch the 4:05pm train into the
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city. 3:30pm rolled around and the multicast dragon hurled one last
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fierce round of flaming packets at me. Emacs, man, grep, make and gcc
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couldn't deflect them and baaam! I got a direct hit. Ouch. With that,
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I laid down my sword, grabbed my notebook and car keys, and ran to
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catch that 4:05 to Penn Station. I'll take up the battle with the
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multicast dragon tomorrow. For now, I had a very important users'
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meeting to attend. (Important on a historical level...)
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<br clear=right>
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<br clear=left>
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<p>
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<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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Down below on the street, a newspaper-magazine vendor tends to his
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inventory.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny25.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny25Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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I got to the Ronkonkoma station at 4pm on the nose, with good time to
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walk (not run, as usually) to the train. As I got close to the tracks,
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I could hear a muffled announcement which sounded like they had just
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canceled the train into the city. I got closer and my intuition was
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right. No LIRR to NYC because of a gas leak somewhere between here and
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Penn. Back to the car, and on down the LIE where I took a rather
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circuitous route to avoid possible parking lot traffic conditions
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ahead. All in all, the trip into the city was uneventful. The hour and
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a half drive gave me a chance to reflect on the state of the Open
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Source movement that day.
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<br clear=right>
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<p>
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<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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Two standard issue NYC hotdog and hot prezzel stands.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny23.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny23Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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The big event in the Open Source world was, of course, Red Hat's IPO,
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which took place about a month ago. This capitalist rite of passage
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catapulted some senior members of Red Hat into billionaire status. At
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least on paper, or more virtually, on the text composed by my web
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browser. Red Hat's market cap was sitting at over 5 Billion that
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day. One share of Open Source/Freedom software (i.e. NASDAQ:RHAT)
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started trading that day at about $85 and by the time I headed into
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the city it was up to over $90. All the closed source marketing hype
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and FUD coming out of other software OS companies cannot refute the
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hard cold facts of market forces. The old phrase "free software, you
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get what you pay for..." rung especially hollow that afternoon. I was
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totally dumbfounded by the new heights shares in NASDAQ:RHAT was
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reaching. I remember reading one of those e-trade news blips that
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NASDAQ:RHAT shares had reached "nose bleed territory." This was when a
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share in RHAT fetched a cool $50 the closing day of the IPO. Now that
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it was trading at over $90 a share, how would those financial reporters
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describe this territory? "Brain edema territory"? Or maybe "total
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outer space vacuum territory." Forget the nose bleeds - your whole
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body explodes from the inside out!
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<br clear=left>
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<p>
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<center>
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<table>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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I did say that NY was under the clouds of Hurricane Dennis, but I
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thought I would liven up the view a bit with this nice shot of a Midtown
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Manhattan skyline taken the following weekend after Bob's talk. The
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shot was taken from Central Park looking south.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href=gx/adler/Manhattan01.jpg>
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<img src=gx/adler/Manhattan01Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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</center>
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<p>
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<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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I'm sure millions were spent on this piece of art, yet it seems to get
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in the way of pedestrian traffic.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny22.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny22Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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Take a step back and think of this IPO phenomena. A company with
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something on the order of 10^2 employees packages and distributes free
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software, offers services on getting it up and running on your PC,
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offers only about 10% of its shares to the public and is now worth
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over 5 billion dollars! Red Hat's driving force, like many other
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companies', are its employees. Therefore one can put a market value on
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each one of those employees at about 10 million dollars a head! Think
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about this: the free markets of western civilization value an Open
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Source employee at 10,000,000. That's a lot of zeros.
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<p>
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The unbelievability of the numbers behind Red Hat's IPO dominated my
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thoughts as I swerved over to the Southern State, down the Southern
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State, then onto the Cross Island, back onto the LIE and finally
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handing over my $3.50 to the toll booth guy to pay for my passage
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under the East River at Midtown.
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<br align=right>
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<p>
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<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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IBM's red sculpture which sits at the base of the IBM building on 57th
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street.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny01.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny01Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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I was driving around Midtown at 5:30pm, this being record time for
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me. So I decided to find a parking lot close to the IBM building where
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the LXNY meeting was to take place. The first parking lot I found was
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going to charge me $35 bucks to park. I backed right out of that
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parking lot. I drove around some more and found another parking lot
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which had a special: $25 for 3 hours. "How much for 4 hours?", "forty
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dolares" replies the attendant is broken English. "40 bucks?!" I
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backed right out of that parking lot as well! After spending 45
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minutes driving around in circles through Midtown Manhattan, I
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finally gave in. The third parking lot was a mere 32 bucks, (or $40
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after tax I found out when I went back to pick up my car. Sigh...)
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<p>
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The rain from hurricane Dennis was now coming down over Manhattan rather
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hard. I got only slightly wet this time, as I dashed over to the IBM
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building. Knowing that the remains of Dennis were on their way to NYC, I
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was wise to bring my umbrella along.
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<br align=left>
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<p>
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<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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New Yorker's anxiously awaiting Bob's arrival with baited breath? I
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think not. Most of them have no idea who Bob is and are just taking
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cover from the rain in front of the main entrance to the IBM building
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on 57th street.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny26.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny26Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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There was a small crowd of people waiting at the main entrance to the
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IBM building for the rain to stop. At first I thought they were all
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there, waiting with baited breath to glimpse Bob Young for the first
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time. I imagined this grand long black limousine pulling up to the
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building, the driver quickly running over to the passenger door to
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open it for Bob. I never saw such a limo drive up and I strongly
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suspect that Bob arrived in a yellow NYC taxi cab. As a matter of
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fact, I think only about 3 or 4 people, of the 20 or so standing out
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front, were waiting to get into the IBM building to attend the
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LXNY. The rest were taking cover from the rain under the entrance way
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into the IBM building. I had a chance to meet one of them, who
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introduced himself as a journalist. After some small talk we both
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headed in, got our stick-on badges, and headed up to the 6th floor.
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<br clear=right>
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<p>
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<center>
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<table>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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LXNY folk gather at the beginning of the meeting, waiting for Bob to
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show.
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</caption></font>
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<tr><td>
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<a href=gx/adler/lxny04.jpg>
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny04Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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</center>
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<p>
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The meeting room was a large one. There was ample room to fit at least
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100 people. When the journalist and I arrived, there were about 20
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people there. I got to work handing out fliers to my Open Source/Open
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Science conference and also took some pictures.
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<p>
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<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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Brian (I think) and Jim of VA Linux posing for me as Jim zips up his
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VAIO in one of those glad zip lock bags. Good way to water proof your
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VAIO.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny16.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny16Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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I saw some familiar faces from VA Linux show. There was one guy with a
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very nice VAIO note book running Quake. Jim Gleason of VA Linux was
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promoting his Linux demo day event. A day where a bunch of guys get
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together and play Quake all day on a bunch of VA Linux PC's attached
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to an OC-48 fire hose into the Internet. (What ever happened to sex,
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drugs and rock 'n roll?)
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<p>
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I noticed the door to the meeting room close and went over to try
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get it to stay open, figuring people showing up may miss the meeting
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if the door is closed. As I was futsying around with the door, I
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turned to find Bob Young looking to get into the room. "Hi Bob" I
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said, "Welcome to New York." He cracked a smile, returned the greeting
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and went in to mingle with the rest of the gathering crowd. I followed
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him in.
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<br clear=right>
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<p>
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<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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Brian and Ari of VA Linux. If you look closely, you'll notice that
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they are both soaked from the rain outside.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny03.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny03Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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By this time, there were closer to 40 people in attendance. Mike
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Smith, one of the co-organizers of LXNY, was there, writing
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information down on a large paper pad which sat on an easel about the
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various Open Source/Free Software related events going on about town.
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He was also waiting for his counter part, Jay Sulzberger, the other
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LXNY co-ordinator, to show up and start the meeting. Jay never showed.
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So Mike called on everyone to listen to a bunch of announcements he
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had, as the meeting formally got started.
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<br clear=left>
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<p>
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<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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The Amiga Users Group (AUG) president, I assume, announcing the
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existence of the AUG.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny08.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny08Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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Mike started with "LUNY is meeting ... ", "The NYLUG is doing ...",
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"WWWAC is having a ....", "NYSIA panel discussion will be on ...", and
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on and on. Finally one guy sitting on the far left of the seating
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area, exclaimed, "What are all these user groups for?" in a rather
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grumbled note. "Why do you have so many? Shouldn't one be
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enough!". Jim Gleason took that question. He explained that when he
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was in San Francisco, there were so many user groups that one could
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find a meeting of some sort any day of the week. When he showed up to
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NY, the number of groups was small in comparison so that he figured he
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would start the New York LUG. With that, this man at the end of
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seating area said, "Well, we want to announce the Amiga Users Group!
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(AUG?)" And with that announcement, Manhattan just got one more user
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group narrowing the "user group count gap" between the east and the
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west coast.
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<br clear=right>
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<p>
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<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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Mike Smith addressing the assemble group before Bob speaks.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny10.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny10Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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With the announcements finished, Bob got ready to address this
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particular user group. He haggled with the seated crowed about how he
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was going to structure his talk. He settled on giving some old LXNY
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stories and then take questions from the audience.
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<p>
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Bob started by talking about the amount of travel he was doing lately
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in promoting Red Hat to private industry in the pre-IPO days. Those
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days were long and the travel extensive. The same presentations were
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made over and over to the point that he had a hard getting his mouth
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just to form the words during these presentations. Through this
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ordeal, he learned the truth of the equation "opportunity - sleep =
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trouble." He was also amused to realize that the corollary also held
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true, "trouble + sleep = opportunity." A neat equation of state in the
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world of sales. During his travel many mistakes were made and this was
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done under high pressure situations and little sleep when he and other
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Red Hat management types were pitching Red Hat to heavy weight
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investors. He recalled one time when they were scheduled to be in New
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York on such a day, and someone had scheduled a meeting with just one
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investor in Dallas the day before. He and his colleagues who were
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touring the country, did not want to go to Dallas, give their
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presentation in front of just one investor, and then have to fly that
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night to NY getting there at 2am, and then try to be fresh for a
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really big, high pressure pitch to a bunch of NY Wall Street types the
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next day. So they decided to play a trick on this poor Dallas
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investor. During their presentation, they were going to redo all their
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mistakes they made during all their other presentations to date. Bob
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continues, "I got up and gave my introduction, going through all the
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mistakes I could remember while I gave my talk, I then handed the
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floor over to Matthew Szulik, (the current president of the company.)
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Matthew started. 'We at Red Hat are committed to bringing and
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supporting the best software Open Source has to offer to the Amiga
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platform!'" Well, maybe you had to be there to get the irony of the
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story.
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<br clear=left>
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<p>
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<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
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<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
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Bob's waiting for Mike to finish up his announcements before taking
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the floor.
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</font></caption>
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<tr><td>
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<a href="gx/adler/lxny09.jpg">
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<img src=gx/adler/lxny09Small.jpg>
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</a>
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</table>
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Bob went on to talk about the origins of LXNY and his work in the Free
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Software world. Bob claimed that he was a sales guy through and
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through. "After the revolution" he said, "I'll be out there selling
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fuller brushes". (What ever they are...) Bob was very clear to cast
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himself as the "entrepreneur." He went into sales right out of college
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and has stuck with it since. He started in the computer industry in
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the leasing market. He would rent computers to companies who didn't
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want to pay loads of money to add computing power to their IT
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systems. The computer leasing industry was about $100 million strong
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back then and he ended up moving to New York City. He said he ended up
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in middle management for this leasing company and to him it was clear
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that the writing was on the wall. During his stint in NYC, he started
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a computer news letter. He was also active in one of the Unix user
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groups. Unigroup, I believe it was called. He heard complaints that
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the Unix user groups where shrinking in membership. "We announce the
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meetings, but fewer and fewer people show up", Bob recounted one user
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member's complaint. The solution for Bob was simple. You had to attract
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attention to these meetings. The newsletter he was working on needed a
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unique angle in order to attract the attention of the local computing
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community. Bob was up against some well oiled machines like Ziff
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Davies and IDG (Infoworld). These were well established media groups
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in the computer industry with huge budgets, staffs of reporters
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etc. Bob needed to find a niche which these other magazines didn't
|
|
cover. This niche was Free Software.
|
|
<br clear=right>
|
|
<p>
|
|
<center>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
Bob Young and Mike Smith standing in front of the assembled group
|
|
sometime during the Q and A part of Bob's talk. I can tell because Bob
|
|
has taken off his jacket and tie at this point.
|
|
</caption></font>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href=gx/adler/lxny15.jpg>
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/lxny15Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</center>
|
|
<p>
|
|
Talking to the computer users at the time, it became clear to him that
|
|
Free Software had something important to offer. He recalled how
|
|
people would wax poetic about the wonders of Free Software. It was
|
|
much more stable and reliable than its commercial counterparts. Thus
|
|
Bob featured Free Software articles in his newsletter. He didn't tell
|
|
the audience if his newsletter was a success or not, but Bob had found
|
|
his niche.
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
Another shot of Bob and Mike, but this time before the talk
|
|
starts. Notice Bob hasn't taken off his jacket and tie yet.
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/lxny06.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/lxny06Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
So Bob started down the Free Software path. This was sometime around
|
|
1992 or 1993. Being the entrepreneur he claimed to be, he started to
|
|
research the Free Software market. He would talk to people about this
|
|
concept of trying to make money from "free" software and the
|
|
consistent answer was that no, you could not. Bob found this
|
|
strange. Everyone he talked to about it raved about how good it was,
|
|
and yet you could not make money from it? This struck an odd chord in
|
|
his marketing and sales intuition. The whole idea of a free market
|
|
economy is that you look for a need, and you work at fullfiling it. He
|
|
was doing this to some extent by publishing a newsletter on free
|
|
software. The next obvious step was to somehow make this free software
|
|
available to those who wanted or needed it.
|
|
<br clear=left>
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
Bob taking questions and giving answers.
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/lxny14.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/lxny14Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
His research on free software and the ability to turn a profit from it
|
|
led to a meeting with Richard Stallman. At that time, he joked that
|
|
this free software stuff was somehow a Trojan Horse from Redmond,
|
|
Washington. Once he met with Richard Stallman, he realized that the
|
|
two formed the two extremes of a bipolar system in the software
|
|
world. Bill Gates at one end in the closed source software world, and
|
|
Richard Stallman, at the opposite end in the open/free software world.
|
|
<p>
|
|
At that time, Linux was making its way into the free software world,
|
|
and Bob saw an opportunity to exercise his entrepreneurial skills. In grand
|
|
entrepreneurial style, he hooked up with Mark Ewing, and started up Red Hat,
|
|
which he ran out of his wife's sewing room. Some time later, he and Marc
|
|
moved to North Carolina where Red Hat is now stationed.
|
|
<br clear=right>
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
Bob looking over his shoulder at someone, just after he got to the
|
|
LXNY meeting.
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/lxny05.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/lxny05Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
Bob was clear about one point in his venture into the free software
|
|
world. He and Marc (and the rest of the free software industry) were
|
|
up against Microsoft. And the only way one can take on a giant like MS
|
|
is by not playing by its rules. Any company who tried to compete with
|
|
MS using the closed source model was doomed to fail. And many
|
|
did. Once MS decides it will take over some kind of application, be it
|
|
a web browser, multi media player, compiler, or whatever, it will
|
|
either buy the competition, or release its own version and thus kill
|
|
the competition. How can you compete with the guy who owns the
|
|
operating system you're writing software for? This left only a rather
|
|
bleak choice for your software company to either being bought or
|
|
broken by the OS giant.
|
|
<br clear=left>
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
Yet another shot of Bob and Mike. Stop me if I'm getting too repetitive...
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/lxny12.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/lxny12Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
Bob then made some comments related to this train of thought regarding
|
|
Richard Stallman. People who compare Richard and Bob would conclude
|
|
that it's these two who are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Bob
|
|
wants to sell free software, or more accurately sell services in the
|
|
free software market, while Richard's goal is to keep software
|
|
free. (Remember, "free" as in "freedom", not free as in a "free
|
|
lunch.") But the end result, either Bob trying to turn a profit by
|
|
packaging a free OS and selling services for it, or Richard, keeping
|
|
the code free, was the absolute necessity of keeping the source code
|
|
free and open. Bob made it very clear. As soon as one starts to dress
|
|
up a Linux distribution with closed source "enhancements", like a
|
|
partitioner and boot loader applications, a window manager/desktop, or
|
|
even the installation tools, your are starting to play right into the
|
|
strengths of Microsoft and the closed source software school. And when
|
|
you do, you lose! Therefore it is an absolute necessity to keep every
|
|
bit of code you package and write free and open.
|
|
<p>
|
|
Bob went on to describe how the railway monopolies of the beginning of
|
|
the 20th century were broken. They were not broken by other companies
|
|
building better trains or tracks, they were broken when the interstate
|
|
highway system was built and truckers could deliver goods from door to
|
|
door, rather than from region to region. In a similar fashion, the
|
|
software industry will have to use Free Software to break the monopoly
|
|
held by Microsoft which it enjoys now.
|
|
<br clear=right>
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
Jay Sulzberger bring a gift of pastry snacks to the guest speaker.
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/lxny13.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/lxny13Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
At some point during Bob's discussion on his analysis of Free
|
|
Software, Jay Sulzberger came in. Jay, in typical Jay style, made a
|
|
rather entertaining entry into the meeting. Jay was wearing a jacket
|
|
and tie, but the tie's really not tied right, (on purpose,) along with
|
|
some rather ragged shorts. He had with him some baked goods consisting
|
|
of a cake, some eclairs and Mediterranean sweets. He exclaimed "You
|
|
must always bring gifts to the rich!". Unfortunately I can't remember
|
|
all that Jay said at that moment. Be it that it was boisterous, in
|
|
good humor, and we all had a good laugh along with Bob.
|
|
<p>
|
|
Bob had some more points about Free Software which need mentioning. He
|
|
talked about how the market for overnight package delivery
|
|
changed. When Federal Express entered the market, their goal was to
|
|
reduce the cost of delivering a package overnight from $200 down to
|
|
$10. "What happens when you do so?" You change the way people use
|
|
overnight delivery by expanding its use tremendously. And we see this
|
|
today, with everyone and his uncle sending or receiving packages
|
|
overnight. Now with e-commerce, the overnight delivery volume is just
|
|
going to get bigger. Bob segued into this thought, what will happen in
|
|
the OS market if you change cost of an operating system to $0? "You
|
|
will change the way people use it," implying a great expansion in the
|
|
use of Free OS.
|
|
<br clear=left>
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
I thought I would break up the monotony of all these pictures of Bob
|
|
with this picture of a section of a Maya stone relief. The picture was
|
|
taken the following weekend while I roamed the Metropolitan Museum. It's
|
|
also a nice contrast to all this talk about high tech and Free Software.
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/Prim04.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/Prim04Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
The final major point of Bob's introductory talk was his thoughts on
|
|
where the Free OS market was going. Being a businessman, he had to
|
|
keep in mind the bigger picture of whatever business he's in. For
|
|
example, when he was in the computer rental market, he knew when his
|
|
company went from a startup to a major player. This market grosses
|
|
about $100,000,000 a year. If your company grosses $10,000,000 then
|
|
you can consider yourself a mature company. There is a term for this
|
|
(which I can't remember now) which means that you have gone from a
|
|
startup to a major player in the market, thus your quarterly revenue
|
|
increases will start to taper off. That is, you grow by a factor of 2
|
|
a year and once you become a "mature" player in the market, you will
|
|
only grow by a few percent a year since you have in effect saturated
|
|
the market. Bob has been trying to apply this analysis to Red Hat in
|
|
the Free Software market. How big does Red Hat have to get in terms of
|
|
gross income before it can consider itself a "mature" company in the
|
|
field? The answer to this date is that he has no idea. No one
|
|
knows. From my own personal perspective, one can look at Microsoft's
|
|
market capitalization. Right now it stands at about $500,000,000,000:
|
|
that's five hundred billion dollars. And Red Hat stands at a puny $5
|
|
billion, 1% on the scale of Microsoft. This means Red Hat has another
|
|
two orders of magnitude to grow before it can be considered a
|
|
"mature" player in this new market of Free Software. But then, if Red
|
|
Hat and other new members of the Free Software market are going to
|
|
change the way people use software, as in the example of how Federal
|
|
Express changed the way people use overnight delivery, then you have
|
|
to factor in several orders of magnitude in the expansion of Free
|
|
software on top of Microsoft's market cap. So if you consider
|
|
Microsoft a "mature" company at $500 Billion, and you consider say 1
|
|
order of magnitude increase in the use of Free Software because of its
|
|
$0 cost to install and distribute, then Red Hat may look at becoming a
|
|
"mature" company when it hits a market cap of $5 trillion? (Yow, these
|
|
numbers are so large it's scary.) But then, we are talking about
|
|
software which is in every PC (not just Intel,) in every network
|
|
appliance (refrigerators, toasters, fuller brushes...) in every
|
|
country around the world, tied together by the Internet, so $5
|
|
trillion just may be the right scale. Paraphrasing Linus Torvalds,
|
|
"This is total world domination."
|
|
<br clear=right>
|
|
<p>
|
|
<center>
|
|
<table>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
Back to Bob. Here his is photographed while being only slightly mobbed
|
|
by LXNY'ers trying to meet the man for the first time.
|
|
</caption></font>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href=gx/adler/lxny28.jpg>
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/lxny28Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
</center>
|
|
<p>
|
|
At some point the meeting turned form Bob talking about his
|
|
experiences and analyses of the Free Software market to a question and
|
|
answer period. There were lots of questions which varied from asking
|
|
about his new book, "Under the Radar," to what he thought about making
|
|
money off others people's software. (He took his coat and tie off to
|
|
answer that question which he started by saying, "We are standing on the
|
|
shoulders of giants..."). One thing that I noticed during the question
|
|
and answer session was the urgency of those who wanted to ask their
|
|
questions. As time went on, more and more people were raising their
|
|
hands trying to get a question in. There was an active dialog going on
|
|
between Bob and the LXNY users group. The question I wanted to get in,
|
|
but couldn't, was what would be Bob's advice to someone who wanted to
|
|
enter this new Free Software market. I'll pop the question to him the
|
|
next time I see him. He did tell me that he was going to attend my
|
|
Open Source/Open Science extravaganza at BNL, so maybe I'll corner him
|
|
then...
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
LXNY'ers gather at Kaplan's deli after Bob's talk.
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/lxny18.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/lxny18Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
The night was getting on and I could tell Bob was getting tired from
|
|
all the questions. The LXNY meeting is a rather long one. It goes from
|
|
6:30pm to 9:00pm with dinner at Kaplan's Deli afterwards. It was about
|
|
8 or 8:15 and Bob wanted to know how much longer he should take
|
|
questions. (I think he was hinting that maybe it shouldn't be too much
|
|
longer) "Another 1/2 hour would be great!" Mike, the co-organizer of
|
|
LXNY tells Bob. So Bob continued the question and answer period for at
|
|
least that long.
|
|
<p>
|
|
The final question finally rolled around. Something about really bad
|
|
support from Dell, which went on for about 5 minutes. Bob's reply was
|
|
the right one, "Send me an e-mail of your complaint and I'll forward it
|
|
on to the right person." With that everyone got up and the "after the
|
|
talk buzz" started. Bob was surrounded for the next 20 minutes by
|
|
people trying to meet him and get another question in. I walked around
|
|
taking photos. After a while, Jay in a very loud voice told every one
|
|
to get out since the building management closes the room at 9pm.
|
|
<br clear=right>
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
Mike, Bob and Jay, sharing a NY Deli moment.
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/lxny19.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/lxny19Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
The next hour was spent at Kaplan's Deli. Bob came right along with
|
|
the group and sat between Mike and Jay eating some deli delight. I was
|
|
rather surprised that he would take the time to go with the LXNY bunch
|
|
over to the deli for dinner. He must have many demands on his time
|
|
nowadays. It was way too late for me, but I wanted to get some photos
|
|
of the group in Kaplan's. I had my extra lean corned beef, about 3
|
|
glasses of water, said my goodbyes to Jay, and took off for home.
|
|
<p>
|
|
If you have read my other articles, you know my routine by now. I hit
|
|
the LIE east, and start counting exits until I reach exit 68. This
|
|
time was no different. And again, as I drove down the LIE, (I can
|
|
almost drive this freeway blindfolded) my mind wandered off into Free
|
|
Software land.
|
|
<br clear=left>
|
|
<p>
|
|
The event that I just attended I considered to be at the historical
|
|
level. And unfortunately, comparisons between Bob Young and Bill Gates
|
|
kept popping into my head. When Microsoft went public, did Bill gather
|
|
with his old Altair users group to talk about the wonders of DOS?
|
|
When was the last time Bill showed up to a users group meeting to
|
|
basically shoot the sh*t with his friends? When will Bob be able to do
|
|
what he did tonight again? As time goes on, and the free software
|
|
market expands, Bob's time is going to be more and more in demand and
|
|
events like this one will just not occur. It's a sad thought but a
|
|
realistic one, I'm afraid.
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
Back to primitive imagery. Why not! I bet there is a law of human
|
|
social interaction and economic forces which states that these forces
|
|
are invariant in time. If not, I'll be glad to publish an article on
|
|
such a law. This picture is of a gold mask found excavated in Central
|
|
America.
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/Prim02.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/Prim02Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
Bob, along with Marc Ewring, have started down a quite adventuresome
|
|
path. Bob clearly has proven that he understands the world of
|
|
Free/Open Source Software. He and Marc have taken Red Hat to where
|
|
other Linux distribution and support companies are headed. Build an
|
|
"ecosystem" of Free Software and an industry will grow from it. The
|
|
contribution which Red Hat has made to GNOME is what I assume is just
|
|
the first step. Red Hat has founded RHAD which will be put to use in
|
|
developing further Open Source projects which my guess is to expand on
|
|
the "lets make a fertile ecosystem" model, so that others can start
|
|
writing application software to run on it and Red Hat will make money
|
|
supporting systems which use it.
|
|
<br clear=left>
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=right hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
This gold mask is of Peruvian origin.
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/Prim10.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/Prim10Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
One needs to keep in mind that the "Open Source/Free
|
|
Software," ecosystem has one ace up its sleeve; this ace being the
|
|
Internet. I keep harping about this fact, so please forgive my
|
|
repetitiveness. This Free Software/Open Source phenomena was born out
|
|
of the global connectivity of the Internet. The Open Source nature of
|
|
Free Software is a byproduct of the way software developers work
|
|
together though the Internet. Another way of writing this is to say
|
|
that because of the inherent nature of how developers collaborate from
|
|
far distances, over the Internet, with a goal of sculpting a software
|
|
package like Apache, GNOME, the Linux kernel etc, one needs to resort
|
|
to the "Open Source/Free Software" model in order to make this
|
|
collaborative system work. It's its own culture and a pure one at
|
|
that, meaning that all of the software which is found in the Open
|
|
Source/Free Software domain, was written in this Internet
|
|
collaborative model right from the get-go.
|
|
<p>
|
|
<table align=left hspace=5 vspace=5>
|
|
<caption align=bottom><font size=-1>
|
|
Ugly fellow from the south pacific.
|
|
</font></caption>
|
|
<tr><td>
|
|
<a href="gx/adler/Prim09.jpg">
|
|
<img src=gx/adler/Prim09Small.jpg>
|
|
</a>
|
|
</table>
|
|
So how does this fact affect the closed source software industry? When
|
|
software is written in the closed source domain, it will be
|
|
<b>very</b> difficult to transfer it to the Open Source domain which
|
|
is favored by the Internet. The simple fact that there is monetary
|
|
interested invested in a closed source software project will keep it
|
|
from being opened. So this sets a very polarized stage in the software
|
|
industry. A company which starts out by paying to develop software in
|
|
the close source business model, which it sells and is its main source
|
|
of revenue, will have a very large mental barrier to overcome in order
|
|
to adopt an Open Source business model. One could call them
|
|
pre-Internet companies. These companies now have a dilemma brought
|
|
about by the Internet. The very nature of collaborative work on the
|
|
Internet has given birth to this Open Source development model. The
|
|
Internet and its connectivity will dominate our future at all levels
|
|
of our social fabric. From the way we do business to the way we meet
|
|
our future mates. Because of this Internet connectivity culture which
|
|
is forming around us, these closed source companies will either be
|
|
forced into the Open Source model or go bankrupt staying in their
|
|
close source domain. One can view this as a Darwinian economic jungle
|
|
where the principle of "the survival of the fittest," (or free'est?)
|
|
applies. This chain of thought then leads to the other side of the
|
|
spectrum. The only way for a company to survive in the Internet
|
|
domain, is to start out embracing the Open Source model right from the
|
|
beginning. The Red Hat's, Caldera's, Turbo Linux'es, Linux Care's, and
|
|
other post-Internet companies are the ones who don't have to face the
|
|
hurdle of taking a large invested close source software product and
|
|
turning it over to the Open Source domain. They all started out on the
|
|
Open Source side of the Internet software development model and they
|
|
will grow right along with the Internet. Because of the power of the
|
|
Internet, or better said, the intellectual power that the connectivity
|
|
of the Internet will harness from a global population, and the fact
|
|
that it favors (even gave birth to) the Free Software model, then you
|
|
should ask your self this question. One what side of the Open
|
|
Source/Free Software - Close Source fence would you like to be on? Let
|
|
me give you a hint, NASDAQ:RHAT has now reached $135 a share (just shy
|
|
of a 1000% gain since its IPO,) and has been consistently selling for
|
|
over $100 a share since then. Ugly as it may be, those Free
|
|
Market/Darwinian forces are telling us something....
|
|
<br clear=right>
|
|
<br clear=left>
|
|
<blockquote>
|
|
<center>
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<table>
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<tr valign=top><td>
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<a href=gx/adler/Rosetta.jpg>
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<img src=gx/adler/RosettaSmall.jpg>
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<td>
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<font size=-1>
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I leave you with a shot of the Rosetta Stone. An inscription is
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repeated 3 times in 2 different languages, Egyptian and Greek. The
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inscriptions are hieroglyphs, demotic (another form of Egyptian writing)
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and Greek. From what was etched in this stone, 19th century scholars were
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able to begin deciphering the Egyptian hieroglyphs. One could argue
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that the necessity of open standards pre-exist our Internet times by
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several millennia.
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</font>
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</a>
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</table>
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</center>
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</blockquote>
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<!-- BEGIN copyright ==================================================-->
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<P> <hr> <P>
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<H5 ALIGN=center>
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Copyright © 1999, Stephen Adler<BR>
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Published in Issue 47 of <i>Linux Gazette</i>, November 1999</H5>
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<!-- END copyright ===================================================-->
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