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"Linux Gazette...<I>making Linux just a little more fun!</I>"
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<font color="navy">A <I>Linux Journal</I> Preview</font>:
This article will appear in the November issue of <I>Linux Journal</I>.
<P> <HR> <P>
<H1 ALIGN=CENTER><FONT COLOR="#ff0000">Open Source's First Six Months</FONT></H1>
<center>
<H4>By <a href="mailto:esr@thyrsus.com">Eric Raymond</a></H4>
</center>
<P> <HR> <P>
Six months ago yesterday as I write, Netscape announced their
intention to release the source code of Navigator. In that time,
we've seen once again that there are very few things as powerful as an
idea whose time has come.<P>
I'm reminded of this every time I surf the Web these days. The <A
HREF="http://www.opensource.org">Open Source</A> meme is everywhere.
It seems you can't open a technical or business magazine these days
without tripping over an admiring article about Linux. Or an
interview with Linus Torvalds. Or an interview with...er...me.<P>
I've ended up near the center of the crazy and wonderful things
happening now half by accident. When I composed <A
HREF="http://www.tuxedo.org/~esr/writings/cathedral-bazaar/">The
Cathedral and the Bazaar</A> a bit more than a year ago, I was aiming
to explain the Linux culture to itself, and explore some interesting
and somewhat heterodox ideas about software development. If anybody
had suggested to me then that the paper was going to motivate something
like the Netscape source release, I would have wondered what drugs
they'd been smoking.<P>
But that's what happened, and I found myself thrust into the role of
leading advocate and semi-official speaker-to-journalists for a hacker
community suddenly feeling its oats. I decided to take that job
seriously, because somebody needed to do it and I knew how and nobody
else was really trying very hard. (I had the advantage of experience;
I'd been in this role before, for lesser stakes, after the New
Hacker's Dictionary came out in 1991.)<P>
The point of all this personal stuff is that I've had an almost
uniquely privileged view of the early days of the open-source
revolution -- as an observer, as a theorist, as a communicator, and as
an active player in helping shape some of the major events.<P>
<H1><FONT COLOR="#ff0000">We've come a long way, baby...</FONT></H1>
In this essay, I intend to do three things. One: celebrate the
incredible victories of the last six months. Two: share my thinking
about the battles being fought right now. And three: consider where
we need to go in the future and what we need to do, to ensure that
open source is no mere fad but a genuine transformative revolution
that changes the rules of the software industry forever.<P>
When you're living on Internet time, I know it can be hard to remember
last week, let alone last year. But take a moment to think back to
New Year's Day 1998. Before the <a
href="http://www.netscape.com/newsref/pr/newsrelease558.html">Netscape
announcement</a>. Before <a
href="http://www.corelcomputer.com/products/announcement.htm">Corel</a>.
Before IBM <a href="http://www.ibm.com/News/1998/06/223.phtml">got
behind Apache</a>. Before Oracle and Informix and Interbase announced
they'd be porting their flagship database projects to Linux. We've
come a long way, baby!<P>
In fact, we've come an astonishingly long way in a short time. Six
months ago `free software' was barely a blip on the radar screens of
the computer trade press and the corporate world -- and what they
thought they knew, they didn't like. Today, `open source' is a hot
topic not just in the trade press but in the most influential of the
business-news magazines that shape corporate thinking.<P>
The <a href="http://www.economist.com">Economist</a>'s July 10 article
was a milestone; another is coming up August 10th, when I'm told <a
href="http://www.forbes.com">Forbes</a> will run an explanation of the
concept as their cover story.<P>
The campaign also went after corporate endorsement of open-source
software. We've got it, in spades. IBM -- <strong>IBM!</strong> --
is in our corner now. The symbolism and the substance of that fact
alone is astounding.<P>
<H1><FONT COLOR="#ff0000">We haven't shot ourselves in the foot...</FONT></H1>
The last six months are also notable for some things I feared early on
that did <strong>not</strong> happen. Despite initially sharp debate
and continuing objections in some quarters, the hacker community did
<strong>not</strong> get bogged down in a loud and divisive factional
fight over the new tactics and terminology. Bruce Perens and I and
the other front-line participants in the Open Source campaign did not
get publically savaged for trying to gently lead the community in a
new direction. And nobody burnt us in effigy for actually
succeeding!<P>
The maturity and pragmatism with which the community backed our play
made a critical difference. It has meant that <strong>the story
stayed positive</strong>, that we have been able to present open
source as the product of a coherent and effective engineering
tradition, one able to sustain the momentum and meet the challenge of
what the corporate word considers "real support". It has denied the
would-be bashers and Gates-worshippers among the press the easy option
to dismiss us all as a bunch of fractious flakes.<P>
<strong>We've all done well</strong>. We've gotten our message out
and we've kept our own house in order -- and all this while continuing
to crank out key advances that undermine the case for closed software
and increase our leverage, like <a
href="http://www.transvirtual.com/">Kaffe 1.0</a>. What comes next?<P>
<H1><FONT COLOR="#ff0000">Towards world domination...</FONT></H1>
I see several challenges before us:<P>
<strong>First:</strong> the press campaign isn't over by any means.
When I first conceived it back in February, I already knew where I
wanted to see positive stories about open source. The <em>Wall Street
Journal</em>, the <em>Economist</em>, <em>Forbes</em>,
<em>Barron</em>, and the <em>New York Times</em>.<P>
Why those? Because if we <strong>truly desire</strong> world
domination, we've got to get our LSD into the corporate elite's
conceptual water supply and alter the beast's consciousness. That
means we need to co-opt the media that shape decision-making at the
highest corporate levels of the Fortune 500. Personally, all the
press interviews and stuff I've done have been aimed towards the one
goal of becoming visible enough to those guys that <strong>they would
come to us</strong> wanting to know the open source community's
story.<P>
This has begun to happen (besides the Forbes interview, I was a
background source for the <em>Economist</em> coverage) -- but it's
nowhere near finished. It won't be finished until they have
<strong>all</strong> gotten and spread the message, and the superior
reliability/quality/cost advantages of open source have become
diffused common knowledge among the CEOs, CTOs, and CIOs who read
them.<P>
<strong>Second</strong>: When I first wrote my analysis of <a
href="http://www.opensource.org/for-suits.html">business models</a>, one of my conclusions was
that we'd have our best short-term chances of converting established
`name' vendors by pushing the clear advantages of <a
href="http://www.opensource.org/for-suits.html#frosting">widget frosting</a>. Therefore my
master plan included concerted attempts to persuade hardware makers to
open up their software.<P>
Though my personal approaches to a couple of vendors were
unsuccessful, then-president of Corel Computer's speech at UniForum
made it clear that CatB and the Netscape example had tipped them over
the edge. Subsequently Leonard Zuboff scored big working from the
inside with Adaptec (one of the companies I had originally targeted
but never got to). So we know this path can be fruitful.<P>
A lot more evangelizing remains to be done here. Any of you who work
on with vendors of network cards, graphics cards, disk controllers and
other peripherals should be helping us push from the inside. Write
Bruce Perens or me about this if you think you might be positioned to
help; combination Mister-Inside/Mister-Outside approaches are known to
work well here.<P>
<strong>Third</strong>: The Oracle/Informix/Interbase announcements
and SGI's official backing for Samba open up another front. (Actually
we're ahead of my projections here; I wasn't expecting the big
database vendors to roll over for another three months or so.) That
third front is the ability to get open-source software into large
corporate networks and data centers in roles outside of its
traditional territory in Internet sevices and development.<P>
One of the biggest roadblocks in our way was the people who said ``OK,
so maybe Linux is technically better, but we can't get real enterprise
applications for it.'' Well, somehow I don't think we'll be hearing
<strong>that</strong> song anymore! The big-database announcements
should put the `no real apps' shibboleth permanently to rest.<P>
So our next challenge is to actually get some Fortune 500 companies to
cut over from NT to Linux or *BSD-based enterprise servers for their
critical corporate databases, <strong>and go public about doing
that</strong>.<P>
Getting them to switch shouldn't be very hard, given the dog's-vomit
reliability level of NT (waving a copy of <a
href="http://www.kirch.net/unix-nt.html">John Kirch's white paper</a>
at a techie should often be sufficient). In fact, I expect this will
swiftly begin to happen even without any nudging from us.<P>
But that will only be half the battle. Because the ugly political
reality is this: The techies with day-to-day operational
responsibility that are doing the actual switching are quite likely to
feel pressure to <strong>hide</strong> the switch from their
NT-brainwashed bosses. Samba is a huge win for these beleaguered
techies; it enables open-source fans to stealth their Linux boxes so
they look like Microsoft servers that somehow miraculously fail to
suck.<P>
There's a problem with this, however, that's almost serious enough to
make me wish Samba didn't exist. While stealthing open-source boxes
will solve a lot of individual problems, it won't give us what we need
to counteract the attack marketing and FUD-mongering that we are going
to start seeing big-time (count on it) as soon as Microsoft wakes up
to the magnitude of the threat we actually pose. It won't be enough
to have a presence; we'll need a <strong>visible</strong> presence,
visibly succeeding.<P>
So I have a challenge for anybody reading this with a job in a Fortune
500 data-center; start laying the groundwork <strong>now</strong>.
Pass around the <a href="http://www.kirch.net/unix-nt.html">Kirch
paper</a> to your colleagues and bosses. Start whatever
process you need to get an Oracle- or Informix- or
Interbase-over-Linux pilot approved -- or get prepared to just go ahead
and <strong>do it</strong> on the
forgiveness-is-easier-than-permission principle. Some of these
vendors say they're planning to offer cheap evaluation copies;
grab them and <strong>go</strong>!<P>
I and the other front-line participants in the Open Source campaign
will be doing our damnedest to smooth your path, working the media
to convince your bosses that everybody's doing it and it's a safe,
soft option that will look good on their performance reports. This,
of course, will be a self-fulfilling prophecy...<P>
<strong>Fourth:</strong> Finally, of course, there's the battle for
the desktop -- Linus's original focus in the master plan for world
domination.<P>
Yes, we still need to take the desktop. And the most fundamental
thing we still need for that is a zero-administration desktop
environment. Either GNOME or KDE will give us most of that; the other
must-have, for the typical non-techie user, is absolutely painless
setup of Ethernet, SLIP, and PPP connections.<P>
Beyond that, we need a rock-solid office suite, integrated with the
winning environment, that includes the Big Three applications --
spreadsheet, light-duty database and a word processor. I guess
Applix and StarOffice come close, but neither are GNOME- or KDE-aware yet.
Corel's port of WordPerfect will certainly help.<P>
Beyond repeating these obvious things there's not much else I'll say
about this, because there's little the Open Source campaign can do to
remedy the problem directly. Everybody knows that native office
applications, well documented and usable by non-techies, are among the
few things we're still missing. Looking around Sunsite, I'd say there
might be a couple of promising candidates out there, like Maxwell and
Xxl. What they mainly need, I'd guess, is documentation and testing.
Would somebody with tech-writing please volunteer?<P>
But this is probably getting into too much detail. The important
thought I'd like to leave you with is this:
<H1><FONT COLOR="#ff0000">We're winning!</FONT></H1>
<strong>Yes, we're winning</strong>. We're on a roll. The Linux user
base is doubling every year. The big software vendors are being
forced to take notice by their customers. <a
href="http://www.redhat.com/redhat/datapro.html">Datapro</a> even says
Linux gets the best overall satisfaction ratings from managers and
directors of information systems in large organizations. I guess that
means not all of them are pointy-haired bosses...<P>
The explosive growth of the Internet and the staggering complexity of
modern software development have clearly revealed the
<strong>fatal weaknesses of the closed-source model</strong>. The people
who get paid big bucks to worry about these things for Fortune 500
have understood for a while that something is deeply wrong with the
conventional development process. They've seen the problem become
acute as the complexity of software requirements has escalated. But
they've been unable to imagine any alternative.<P>
<strong>We are offering that alternative.</strong> I believe this is
why the Open Source campaign has been able to make such remarkable
progress in changing the terms of debate over the last six months.
It's because we're moving into a conceptual vacuum with a simple but
powerful demonstration -- that hierarchy and closure and secrecy are
weak, losing strategies in a complex and rapidly-changing environment.
The rising complexity of software requirements has reached a level
such that only open source and peer review have any prayer of being
effective tactics in the future.<P>
The <em>Economist</em> article was titled ``Revenge of the Hackers'',
and that's appropriate -- because we are now re-making the software
industry in the image of the hacker culture. We are proving every day
that <strong>we</strong> are the people with the drive and the vision
that will lead the software industry into the next century.<P>
<P>
<ADDRESS>Eric S. Raymond <A HREF="mailto:esr@thyrsus.com">&lt;esr@thyrsus.com&gt;</A></ADDRESS>
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<center><H5>Copyright &copy; 1998, Eric Raymond <BR>
Published in Issue 31 of <i>Linux Gazette</i>, August 1998</H5></center>
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