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149 lines
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<TITLE>The Future of Linux: Prepared Question II</TITLE>
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<LINK REV="made" HREF="mailto:newt@pobox.com">
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<!-- Copyright (c) 1998 Greg Roelofs. -->
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<BODY BGCOLOR="#ffffff" TEXT="#000000" LINK="#0000ff" VLINK="#7700ff"
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<IMG WIDTH=165 HEIGHT=76 BORDER=0
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ALIGN="right" SRC="./gx/roelofs/linux-dont-fear.jpg" ALT="[Don't Fear the Penguins.]"></A>
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<H1 ALIGN="center"> The Future of Linux </H1>
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<H3 ALIGN="center"> 14 July 1998 </H3>
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<BR CLEAR="all">
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<HR>
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<P>
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<H3> Prepared Question #2 </H3>
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<CENTER>
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<FONT COLOR="#aa0000">
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<I>Where will Linux be in two to three years?</I>
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</FONT>
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</CENTER>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Sunil Saxena</B>: ``It's all on my foil right here.''
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<UL>
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<LI>Among internets / intranets / ISPs, Linux will continue to grow,
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especially in corporate America; we'll see continued adoption.
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<LI>There will be new growth in the areas of E-commerce and
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business-to-business Internet EDI (electronic data exchange).
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<LI>It will start showing up in all sorts of Internet appliances,
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including wearable computers, video-conferencing systems, etc.
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<LI>We'll see 64-bit Linux on the IA-64 (Merced).
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<LI>Linux will move into the data center via high-availability clusters
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and 16- to 32-way SMP systems.
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<LI>Other spiffy features like I2O, hot swap, serial-based server
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management and control, etc., will be supported.
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<LI>Linux developers will be granted early access and increased access
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to specs and Intel engineers.
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<LI>``Please come talk to us and tell us what we can do.''
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</UL>
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<P>
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<LI><B>Larry Augustin</B>:
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<UL>
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<LI>One big prediction: kernel 2.2 will be released within three
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years (``and that's pushing it''). <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>much
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laughter</I>]</FONT>
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<LI>He also took the opportunity to thank Leonard Zubkoff for the
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four-way Xeon port being demoed by VA Research in the rear.
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Apparently he modified (added?) 20 lines of code at the last
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minute without even having all of the sources there.
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</UL>
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<P>
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<LI><B>Robert Hart</B>:
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<UL>
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<LI>Two to three years is an eternity for Linux--even a week is a long
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time.
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<LI>People are lazy, and laziness leads to creativity, which means
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great improvements for Linux.
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<LI>He again noted that it's the only non-MS operating system to gain
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market share and that it's being actively courted by large vendors
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such as Intel. He also noted that it's generating strong media
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interest, and not only that, but the reporting is generally both
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accurate and useful. (He thanked the representatives of the press
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in the audience.)
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<LI>There will be a strong showing of easy-to-use apps.
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<LI>Linux will be the dominant server platform, not just on Intel but
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across all platforms. I believe he mentioned ``64-bit, 4-way
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Merced,'' too.
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<LI>He mentioned that it was Bastille Day and recalled how, in 1788
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and 1789, the people rose up and stormed the IT department and
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gave freedom to oppressed machines. ``They even executed some
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people.'' But he disputed his own comparison and said that Linux
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isn't so much a revolution as an evolution; it didn't happen just
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once.
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<LI>He concluded by predicting that in two to three years, Linux will
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be ``very nearly everywhere.''
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</UL>
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<P>
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<LI><B>Linus Torvalds</B>:
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<UL>
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<LI>``I'm really bad at predictions.'' For example, a few years ago
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when he was asked about SMP support, his reaction was, ``I dunno,
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it's too expensive''; he said he didn't care much about it and
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didn't find it interesting. But for the last year he's worked
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almost exclusively on SMP.
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<LI>2.2 <I>will</I> be out by then. <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>much
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more laughter</I>]</FONT>
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<LI>The kernel is really just a vessel for what one can do; he claimed
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that it was inappropriate to ask him such a question--``what's
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really exciting is apps'' (and the journaling file system is
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``slightly exciting'').
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<LI>Servers will be big. <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>Do we sense a theme
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here?</I>]</FONT>
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<LI>The interesting part will be ``pretty'' apps that traditionally
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haven't been Unix-based.
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</UL>
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<P>
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<LI><B>Jeremy Allison</B>:
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<UL>
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<LI>He used to keep track of every minor release of every piece of
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free software; these days no one can do so for even 10% of it,
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and there be some incredibly cool things in that other 90%.
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<LI>Linux will be a ``killer server platform.''
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<LI>Everyone at Cisco Systems already use Linux every time they print,
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whether they know it or not. <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>See
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<A HREF="http://laulujoutsen.pc.helsinki.fi/~mjr/linux/cola.archive/1998-07/mjr.1998-07-17.018"
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>this c.o.l.a announcement</A> for details about the printer-admin
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tool used at Cisco.</I>]</FONT>
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<LI>At least one major PC vendor will start shipping PCs with Linux
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pre-installed. (And if not, Robert will start such a company...)
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<LI>With regard to applications, vendors are already ``not as greedy''
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as they've traditionally been on Unix systems; Linux apps are
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priced similarly to Wintel apps, not five times more. Linux will
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be ``where the mothers are''--on the desktop--and one will be able
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to buy almost any app for Linux.
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<LI>Linux is likely to overtake something, but I missed what...
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<LI>And again, he predicted that Linux will be installed on 20% to 25%
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of shipping Intel systems.
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</UL>
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<P>
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</UL>
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<P>
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<HR>
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Click here to return to the <A HREF="roelofs.html">main <I>Future of
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Linux</I> page</A>.<BR>
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<HR>
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<I>Last modified 20 July 1998 by
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<A HREF="mailto:newt@pobox.com">newt@pobox.com</A> , you betcha.</I>
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<P>
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<FONT SIZE="-1">
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Copyright © 1998 Greg Roelofs.
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</FONT>
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</BODY>
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</HTML>
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