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219 lines
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<TITLE>The Future of Linux: Phil Hughes Questions</TITLE>
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<LINK REV="made" HREF="mailto:newt@pobox.com">
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<!-- Copyright (c) 1998 Greg Roelofs. -->
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ALIGN="right" SRC="./gx/roelofs/linux-dont-fear.jpg" ALT="[Don't Fear the Penguins.]"></A>
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<H1 ALIGN="center"> The Future of Linux </H1>
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<H3 ALIGN="center"> 14 July 1998 </H3>
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<BR CLEAR="all">
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<HR>
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<P>
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<H3> Phil Hughes Questions </H3>
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<I>How much bigger will the Linux market be in 2000?</I>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Jeremy Allison</B> said 20% to 25% of shipping Intel systems.
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<LI><B>Linus Torvalds</B> said that he's always been bad at predicting
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things and basically weaseled out of answering the question...
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<LI><B>Sunil Saxena</B> also declined to speculate.
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<LI><B>Larry Augustin</B> said that Linux would be the #1 Unix by
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2000, and something else that I missed.
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<LI><B>Robert Hart</B> mentioned the <A HREF=
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"http://www.redhat.com/redhat/datapro.html">Datapro report</A> that
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showed only two OSes increased their corporate market share in 1997;
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Linux was one of them.
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He said the doubling time was 12 months, which would imply between 20
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million and 40 million Linux users; ``I'll be surprised if we don't
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go beyond that.''
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</UL>
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<P>
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<I>World domination: how much longer?</I><BR>
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<FONT COLOR="#006600">[reference to Linus's rather famous stated goal in his
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.sig or .plan or something]</FONT>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Linus Torvalds</B>: ``That <I>used</I> to be a joke... <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>much
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laughter</I>]</FONT> ...and it's becoming less and less so.'' He said his ego
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hopes it will happen in 5 to 10 years; but realistically he hopes that,
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in 5 to 10 years, no one dominates the industry.
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</UL>
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<P>
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<I>What is Samba's role in Linux's acceptance?</I>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Jeremy Allison</B> first asked for a show of hands; it appeared that
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roughly 40% of the audience used Samba. Then he gave the short answer to
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the question: Samba ``essentially allows people to remove NT servers.''
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He noted that SGI is officially adopting Samba <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>recall that they, like
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HP, are now selling NT systems as the low end of their product line</I>]</FONT>
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and that ``some crazy folks are running it straight off of <FONT COLOR="#006600">[CDs??]</FONT> with
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200 users'' (mostly universities who ``<B>do not want</B> NT''). By the
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end of the year he hopes that Samba will be able to completely replace
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all primary NT Server functions.
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</UL>
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<P>
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<I>Corel's Network Computer is running Linux, as is Cobalt's MicroServer (a
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7-inch cube)--these are basically Linux appliances.</I><BR>
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<FONT COLOR="#006600">[not sure what the question was, exactly...]</FONT>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Larry Augustin</B> commented that other companies are taking notice
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and saying, ``Hey, we could do that, too.''
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</UL>
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<P>
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<I>Open Source is obviously just another fad...isn't it?</I>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Larry Augustin</B> was the first to disagree; he said that Open
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Source is here to stay--for example, it allows a company like Netscape
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to compete on its own terms against Microsoft, not on Microsoft's terms.
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It also supports a Darwinian model: if one vendor's support is lacking,
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you've got the source and can take your money (and business) elsewhere.
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That's not possible with the closed-source model epitomized by Microsoft.
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<LI><B>Robert Hart</B> expanded on that point: it's all about
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<B>control</B>. If you need a new feature or bug fix or other
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customization, you can simply hire someone to do it for you. ``You don't
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need anyone's permission; just do it!'' I believe he related an example
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of a company with a large application that was in dire need of a bugfix;
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they were willing to spend essentially any amount of money or manpower to
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get the thing working, but their vendor was unresponsive and they had no
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real alternatives.
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<LI><B>Jeremy Allison</B> claimed that he was fundamentally ``a lazy
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programmer'' and that the Open Source model is a way of letting the
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users do the work. <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>more laughter</I>]</FONT> He mentioned that some
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incredible Samba patches occasionally turn up in his e-mail--often
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oddball customizations that are only useful to a few people, but to them
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they're extremely useful. ``Imagine asking Microsoft to do a custom NT
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Server for your site.''
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</UL>
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<P>
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<I>What will be the long-term effects on Linux of Microsoft's recent win
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against Netscape (i.e., bundling MSIE in Win98)?</I><BR>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Linus Torvalds</B> dismissed the Department of Justice and the US
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legal system as important factors in Linux's future; ``the only thing
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that will matter is the market.'' In fact, he claimed that it's an
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advantage since there are lots of companies who find it hard to compete
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when Microsoft sees what they're doing and simply incorporates similar
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technology directly into the OS. In the Linux arena they can find a
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niche and compete (echoing Larry's comments above), as Corel has, for
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example. ``That's one reason why, in the end, a monopoly just doesn't
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work. <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>pause</I>]</FONT> Maybe that's just me...''
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</UL>
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<P>
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<I>What do we need to do to get apps (such as from Adobe and Quark, which are
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the only non-Linux apps used by Linux Journal) ported to Linux?</I>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Robert Hart</B> said that there are just two things: let them know
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you want Linux ports, and show them that there's profit to be made.
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<LI><B>Larry Augustin</B> related an <A HREF=
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"http://www.slashdot.org/articles/9807141217214.shtml">article seen on
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Slashdot</A> earlier in the day about Informix's unannounced Linux port
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and said the key is to tell vendors, ``If you port it to Linux, we will
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buy it.'' <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>Three days later, <A HREF=
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"http://www.slashdot.org/articles/980717/1934203.shtml">Slashdot</A> and
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<A HREF=
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"http://www.infoworld.com/cgi-bin/displayStory.pl?980717.whorlinux.htm"
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>InfoWorld Electric</A> report a sudden reversal of plans at Oracle:
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<B>they will be porting Oracle 8 to Linux after all.</B> In fact, they
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say that they've had it running internally for a while already. See also
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InfoWorld Electric's article on <A HREF=
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"http://www.infoworld.com/cgi-bin/displayStory.pl?980717.whinformix.htm"
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>Informix's official Linux announcement</A>, expected next week.</I>]</FONT>
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</UL>
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<P>
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<I>With regard to the Linux Standard Base (a standard for base-level
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compatibility across Linux distributions), Red Hat and Debian's standard
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package formats, Red Hat's early adoption of glibc vs. everyone else, etc.:
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are we doing this right? Are there too many Linux ``standards''?</I>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Robert Hart</B> had three points in response. First, there's a lot
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of discussion between the various distribution makers, precisely for the
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purpose of avoiding fragmentation. Second, there's a danger of
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stultifying and crushing the rapid pace of development and the incredible
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customization choices available to users if there's too much rigidity
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and standardization. Third, to the other distributions: ``Please get
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with it--glibc is the only actively maintained C library.''
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<LI><B>Larry Augustin</B> countered that he's seen a lot of users who, when
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they upgraded to Red Hat 5.x, found that ``everything broke.''
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<FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>Thanks to <A HREF="mailto:ejr@cise.ufl.edu"
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>Jason Riedy</A> for the reminder that just installing the older
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libc 5.4.x somewhere in the library path isn't sufficient; most shared
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libraries used by older apps need to be duplicated, as was the case in
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the changeover from a.out to ELF binaries a couple of years
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ago.</I>]</FONT> ``You're in the big time now. Some things (like
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Informix) users can't simply recompile--try to make things easier for
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people and remain compatible.''
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</UL>
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<P>
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<I>What if Microsoft plays the Linux game? For example, Open Windows 99 or
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Internet Explorer for Linux?</I>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Linus Torvalds</B> first noted that <I>he's</I> working at a company
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<FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>Transmeta</I>]</FONT> whose product won't be available on the Internet. He
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went on to say that he has a lot of respect for Microsoft's PR machine,
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and ``let's hope they do.''
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<LI><B>Jeremy Allison</B> apparently interpreted ``Open Windows 99'' as a
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hypothetical Microsoft release based on Linux and said that he would
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welcome MS Linux--the GNU General Public License (GPL) limits abuse.
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``If they change it, we'd get the source code,'' to which Linus muttered,
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``We could fix it, too.'' <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>much applause and laughter</I>]</FONT>
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</UL>
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<P>
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<I>NASA, NIST, the US Postal Service, (IRS?)--is the US Government the first
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step toward world domination?</I>
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<P>
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<UL>
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<LI><B>Linus Torvalds</B>: ``I hadn't really thought of that, but
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now that you've planted the idea...'' <FONT COLOR="#006600">[<I>more chuckles</I>]</FONT>
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</UL>
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<P>
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<HR>
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Click here to return to the <A HREF="roelofs.html">main <I>Future of
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Linux</I> page</A>.<BR>
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<HR>
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<I>Last modified 19 July 1998 by
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<A HREF="mailto:newt@pobox.com">newt@pobox.com</A> , you betcha.</I>
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<P>
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<FONT SIZE="-1">
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Copyright © 1998 Greg Roelofs.
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</FONT>
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</BODY>
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</HTML>
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